Biofuels are indispensable to Canada’s near-term and 2050 net-zero targets.
Negative emissions technologies (NETs) such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) being deployed in existing biofuel facilities can yield net-negative biofuel carbon intensities.
British Columbia’s Clean fuel regulations incentivize innovation to achieve both lower Carbon Intensity in fuels and lower compliance costs.
This chart shows significant reduction in the CI of biofuels since 2010 – on average, 60%. Before applying ‘carbon dioxide removal’ technologies, this extrapolated trend shows biofuels’ CI capable of net zero by 2040.
The use of CDR will result in net-negative CI biofuels before 2030 as shown in the fuel-specific charts below.
Biofuel carbon intensity under BC’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard
Explore the data: click on the legend for visibility, mouse-over/tap the chart to see values, and use the 3-bar menu to save/print.
Energy efficiency in production facilities and feedstock selection have driven much of biofuels’ historical CI reduction.
CDR technologies include: Bioenergy carbon capture and storage, waste utilization where other emissions (e.g. methane) are avoided, direct air capture, and, sequestering carbon in soil from improved crop production.
Biofuel carbon intensity under BC’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard with Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) scenarios
Most biofuels have very low carbon intensity (CI) because they recycle atmospheric carbon (displacing crude oil), and in a number of cases utilize wastes or residues with a small/negative carbon footprint. In British Columbia’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, the weighted average CI of biofuels has dropped 60% since 2010. In 2019, the CI of biodiesel (gm CO2e/MJ) was -1 gm; ethanol was 29 gm; and, renewable diesel was 19 gm.
Research by Argonne National Labs shows best-in-class farm practices achieving net-negative GHG sequestration of -15.9 g CO2e/MJ (compared with ‘average farm practice’ of 28.5 g/MJ for cradle-to-farm-gate emissions).
Electrification in light duty vehicles and transit buses is growing rapidly; hydrogen holds great promise, with broader commercial deployment likely to accelerate from 2030 onward. Heavy duty vehicles, aviation and marine will continue to need energy-dense liquid fuels. Biofuels generate immediate emission reductions and can be deployed in existing fuels infrastructure while other technologies are developed and adopted at scale. No one fuel will serve all needs.
Energy-dense liquid and gaseous fuels are the only practical substitutes in an ICE.
PATH TO NET-ZERO 2050
Net-zero emissions means removing as much human-caused GHGs from the atmosphere as we emit.
This does not mean eliminating emissions everywhere; rather, solutions such as negative emission technologies – e.g., some advanced biofuels – will be used to cancel out remaining GHG emissions.
“It is becoming increasingly clear that substantial amounts of negative emissions – essentially, the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere – will likely be required if global climate change is to be limited to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Among the different negative emissions options, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, or BECCS, is arguably one of the most commonly discussed in climate policy debates.”
From 2020 onward, many emission sources can gradually be reduced to zero (mitigation.)
Some emissions sources (e.g., steel, cement production) have no identified viable mitigation pathway; to compensate, negative-emission technologies are needed to enable net-zero.
Bioenergy carbon capture and storage, and direct air capture are two of the most promising, scalable net-negative solutions.
A possible net-zero trajectory as portrayed by Canada Energy Regulator
No Net-Zero 2050 Without Transportation
Transportation accounts for 25% of global and Canadian GHG emissions, which are growing in most heavy-duty sectors. Net-Zero 2050 is unlikely to be reached without significant transportation sector reductions.
Transportation is the highest-emitting end use sector (2020.)
Not included in transportation are emissions in the industrial sector related to oil and gas extraction, and refining. These comprise 37% of industrial emissions. Accounting for the full lifecycle emissions (and not just tailpipe) in gasoline, diesel, etc. is what makes transportation the single largest end use emitting sector.
The Clean Fuel Standard will incent reductions in both sectors.
Transportation is regarded as a particularly difficult sector to decarbonize.
Canada’s GHG emissions by end use sector: 2000 to 2018
Internal Combustion Engines – and their emissions – will be with us through 2050
Even in the most ambitious electrification scenarios, millions of new internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) will be sold between now and 2050.
Net-zero transportation GHG can be achieved with advanced biofuels/synthetic fuels in ICEVs.
According to Statistics Canada, there were almost 23.5 million personal vehicles on the road in 2019. If the average annual emissions per ICEV is 4.6 tonnes of CO2e and the ICEV fleet is reduced to zero by 2050 (a linear reduction is assumed for simplicity) then there are 1,728 Mt of CO2e that are unaddressed by electrification. This scenario is ambitious and therefore represents a low estimate of ICE emissions from 2020 to 2050.*
*Assumes any growth in fleet size occurs in EV’s, not ICE. Assumes a linear reduction trend.
In the heavy-duty transport sector, electric and fuel cell vehicle combined market share will reach that of ICE heavy-duty vehicles by approximately 2050.
In light-duty transport, electric vehicle market share will be at parity with that of ICEV by 2045.
ICE vehicles through 2050 – heavy-duty diesel & personal vehicles
With many ICE still powering on/off-road vehicles, aviation, and much of freight (long-haul trucks, ships, rail) by 2040 and 2050, net-zero will be feasible only with significant use of very low carbon biofuels.
California has the most aggressive transportation decarbonization policies and statutes of any large global jurisdiction.
Modelling performed by UCDavis for California EPA to achieve a near-net-zero CO2 transportation system by 2045 shows 43% of final transportation energy demand to be supplied by low-CI ethanol, renewable gasoline, renewable diesel , and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
Per UC Davis, “…significant growth in low carbon liquid fuels compatible with internal combustion engines is still essential to meet the residual demand [from on-road vehicles] in addition to the demand for hard-to-electrify modes such as aviation and marine applications.” (UC Davis, 2021)
As an indication of the pace of transformation incented by the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, refiner plans for new renewable diesel production in California are of sufficient capacity to replace all diesel in the state by 2025; in 2019, 25% of CA diesel fuel was renewable (biodiesel, renewable diesel, and RNG).
California Transportation Energy Demand 2017-2050 – LC1 Scenario
The Impact of the Clean Fuel Standard
The Pan Canadian Framework assigned the CFS a key role in meeting our 2050 targets. Modelling of four possible scenarios of the Clean Fuel Regulations shows that greater blend levels, combined with falling carbon intensities (as prescribed by the regulations), have the potential to deliver significant emission reductions.
The WAEES modelling (see link below charts) assesses plausible CFS compliance pathways. For the biofuel-weighted pathway (RF-CC2), biofuel blending could increase 2-4x by 2030 under modest compliance credit values, with increased biofuel use ramping up smoothly without demand shocks.
Scenario FF-CC1 — This scenario represents the highest credit generation from upstream oil and gas emissions reductions. Emissions reductions include Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) categories: carbon capture and storage, upstream improvements, refinery reductions, and incremental methane reductions.
Scenario ECCC-TT: ECCC’s target and trajectory dataset) — This scenario mirrors ECCC’s modeling data that was released on June 19, 2020. This scenario includes a placeholder of 2 million credits generated by ‘emerging technologies’; all other scenarios allocate credits to the three category types and do not utilize this placeholder.
Scenario EV-CC3: electric vehicle – compliance category 3 — This scenario uses electric vehicles as a proxy for all category 3 credit pathways and represents the highest credit generation from alternative transportation platforms. Other compliance category 3 credit pathways include hydrogen fuel cell vehicle use and gaseous transport (renewable natural gas, compressed natural gas, liquid natural gas, and propane).
Scenario RF-CC2: renewable fuel – compliance category 2 – This scenario limits credit generation from CC1 and CC3 to 12 million tonnes per year by 2030 and thereby represents the highest credit generation from the use of biofuels of the modeled scenarios.
The processes to convert crude oil to gasoline, diesel, and jet fuels can be more efficient, but no technology can remove crude oil from the final combusted fuel – this leaves 76% of tailpipe emissions untouched. Only crude-displacing solutions such as advanced biofuels, electrification, hydrogen, etc. can reduce full-lifecycle emission to zero/near-zero.
Modelling of California’s path to net-zero shows that reducing tailpipe emissions is the major challenge, where rapid and substantial action is required. Reducing extraction and refining emissions to produce ‘cleaner’ fossil fuels is only marginally a solution for net zero, and one that takes a back seat to displacing crude oil use.
No. Some transportation sectors are much more difficult to electrify due to current technological barriers and scalability challenges. Three hard to decarbonize modes of transport are:
Medium and Heavy Duty Trucking
Additionally, even were passenger (light-duty) vehicles to comprise 50% of new car sales by 2040 (CICC most assertive case), the legacy fleet of ICEV will be reliant on billions of liters of low carbon non-fossil liquid fuels in the decade to attain net-zero by 2050.
Canada is one of the world’s largest producers of sustainable agricultural crops used in biofuel production. Biofuels use approximately 5% of global cropland. In Canada, cultivated acreage has decreased 0.4% per year on average since 2000; most of that loss has been to ‘summer fallow’ that is not farmed. In that period, canola production per acre has increased by 49%: farmers are producing more crops on fewer acres due to agronomy and crop science.
Increased agricultural feedstock production occurs in direct response to supply chain investments in processing capacity. In Canada, this is taking the form of expanded canola crushing capacity. In the next two crop years, canola production – on existing agricultural land – is expected to increase in response to this demand, which will then supply new renewable fuel production facilities.
The federal carbon charge of fuels is currently $40/T (2021), rises to $50 in 2022, and in 2023 and will move in $15 annual increments to $170/T by 2030. Provinces not under the federal backstop have their own levels that are expected to approximate the federal charge.
Diesel-pool renewable content is taxed at diesel rates up to 5% blends, and gasoline-pool renewable content is taxed at gasoline rates up to 10% blends. Above those blend levels, the renewable content is exempt from the carbon charge, and the diesel and gasoline charges increase proportionately to tax the fossil portion sufficiently to make up for the non-taxed renewable content.
On-road transportation emissions from ICE platform
ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF BIOFUELS
The increased production of biofuels will have a significant positive impact on Canada’s economy.
Biofuels production is expected to increase from its current level of 2,500 MLY in 2020 to between 4,645 and 6,111 MLY in 2030.
At the lower estimate of Canadian biofuel production, the industry could support nearly 24,000 jobs (over 12,000 additional jobs) and $10.2 billion in total output from Quebec to British Columbia by the year 2030.
Were the industry to expand faster, those impacts could be as high as 22,000 new jobs and $13.7 billion in output for the area studied.
Canada currently imports ~43% of annual ethanol consumption, whereas biodiesel/renewable diesel imports are roughly on par with exports (which are nominal for ethanol.)
Increasing electrification and light duty vehicle efficiency standards are expected to decrease overall gasoline demand (and associated ethanol blending), but absolute domestic capacity is expected to expand substantially.
The diesel pool faces less demand destruction, and is projected to have fewer low-carbon solutions beyond biofuels to 2030 and will also expand.
Domestic Biofuel Production
The full study area encompasses Central and Western Canada; there is no commercial biofuel production capacity outside these regions.
Ontario/Quebec are expected to add between 7,700 – 13,200 jobs, while Western Canada is expected to add between 3,900 – 7,000 jobs.
Employment impacts for full study area, by biofuel